Not quite seated at the right hand, but in the team photo

I apologize for the lack of updates to both of you who read this blog.

BasketballMoses the Blog will eventually return.

But BasketballMoses the Tweeter is alive and well.

See you soon.

This made me laugh so hard. Thank you Conan.

the "most efficient" player in the NBA

A number of years ago Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane was the subject of a book called “Moneyball” which explored the organization’s sabermetric approach to piecing together a baseball team. It argues that dispassionate, complex, and objective computer data is a better representation of a player’s value than basic statistics like RBI or batting average. It also places little value on talent evaluation done by simply watching a player.

Since then, analysts from basketball and football have tried to come up with similar ratings and formulas to determine the worth of a given player. John Hollinger of ESPN is probably the most noteworthy writer who tries to extrapolate larger meaning through complicated formulas and numbers.

Here’s what I think.

Baseball is a sport about individual moments and individual matchups. There is more to be quantified and measured about players on a baseball field than there is on a basketball court or football field because of the nature of the sports.

Let’s talk about some of the dumbest stats in basketball, shall we?

+/- : How a team performs when a player is on the court determines his +/- number. So if Kobe Bryant enters the game with his team up by 8 and leaves with them up by 5, he gets a -3. If Brian Scalabrine enters with the Bulls up by 22 and leaves with them up by 26 he gets a +4. It’s a stupid, lazy stat. How do we know this? Right now Zydrunas Ilgauskas of the Heat has a higher +/- than Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer, and Al Horford. Stoopid.

Efficiency: How do you determine a player’s efficiency?

((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

Duh.

An unnecessarily complicated way of determining how well a player plays with his time on the court. My biggest problem with this is that it penalizes certain players who are their team’s lone offensive threat if they shoot a low percentage. Rose would get killed last year for not being efficient because of how many minutes he played and how many shots he took. Granted, some of that is legit if he wasn’t getting to the line and missing a bunch of shots. But any stat that says Kevin Love–productive as he’s been–is the most efficient player in the NBA is a bad stat. Clearly efficiency isn’t THAT valuable.

TS% aka True Shooting Percentage takes into account a player’s shooting accuracy from field goals, three pointers, and free throws.

This is the formula PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))

Here’s all you need to know about “true” shooting percentage. If you look at the top ten true shooting percentage players in the NBA, you find zero all stars. In fact, you don’t see one until Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki who are tied at #16. Your TS% leader is Tyson Chandler. To call it “true” shooting percentage is laughable.

There is probably a time and a place for incorporating a sabermetric approach into basketball. We’re just not there yet. There are too many flawed stats that place too much emphasis on arbitrary data and ignore the other four players on the court.

It works in baseball.

This isn’t baseball.

When the news about Carlos Boozer’s broken hand was announced in early October, many Bulls fans had a bit of a freakout. I was not one of them.

And then in mid December we got news that Joakim Noah would be lost for at least a couple months due to a thumb injury. More freakouts. I wasn’t thrilled with the news but always try to keep the sanity in check (“let’s all just take a breath”). Yeah I just quoted myself. Sorry.

So here we are 53 games into the season after two severe injuries to two really important players and the Bulls sit at…36-17. They’ve had their full team together for nine games and they’re contending for the best record in the Eastern Conference.

This is the main reason it’s hard to deny that Derrick Rose is the league MVP with 29 regular season games left. I’m not someone who will praise the Bulls just because I love them. I’ve always tried to maintain an objective and critical viewpoint when tweeting or writing this blog. And I was killing the organization the past two years for hiring Vinny the Black as their head coach. What a waste.

But Derrick Rose is ascending to the level of NBA elite.

Granted, LeBron is still the best player in the world. I wish it wasn’t so, you wish it wasn’t so, but it’s so. Right now it’s him and everyone else. But in that “everyone else” there are about 5-7 top tier players in their own class. I don’t think it’s crazy to say that Derrick has joined that class.

What you see him do in the video clip shown above is something only a few people on the planet can do. That kind of speed and body control is pretty astonishing.

So what am I saying in this post? Derrick Rose is damn good? Duh. The Bulls are legit? That’s been clear for a while.

I guess I’m just happy that this team has this player. Because this is really fun.

>Derrick Rose hates rating his own spectacular plays, but because ESPN is less a sports channel and more a marketing and hype machine, they asked him to do it anyway. His top five dunks are shown in the clip above. I find it interesting that my favorite Rose dunk of all time isn’t on his list. It’s the alley-oop in ATL from last season.

That’s my favorite because of how hard he threw it down and because it looks like he pauses in mid-air. I know he doesn’t, but it still looks cool.

>Speaking of Rose, the four letter network’s Rick Reilly (who I find tolerable at best) wrote this piece on Rose. You might like it. One thing that bothers me a little bit is Rose’s insistence on heading back to his old neighborhood from time to time, where gunshots are a frequent occurrence. You can accuse me of not understanding such a circumstance, and I’ll agree with you, but I think once you’re able to remove yourself from murderous locations, it’s probably best not to head back too often.

>There are hopes that Joakim Noah is ahead of schedule in his return to the team, and though the rest of the team is holding down the fort, he’ll be a sight for sore eyes. Not just for what he brings to the court, but how much deeper he makes the roster. One beneficiary will be Luol Deng, who should finally see some decreased minutes and less time at power forward. He’s been invaluable this season, and needs to be recognized more often.

>The Bulls have the third best home record in the NBA at 21-4 just behind Boston (22-3) and San Antonio (24-2). Pretty encouraging. It also means they need to get more consistent on the road. They also happen to be the only team in the league who is undefeated against their own division. Which they should be because the Central blows.

>Getting back to road records, the Washington Wizards are…wait for it…0-21 away from home. Minnesota is not much better at 2-21 and Cleveland (losers of 18 straight) is 3-23. That, dear friends, is some bad basketball.

>I’m also thoroughly enjoying the Knicks’ return to earth, as they’ve only won 3 of their last 10 games. We knew it was coming, but it’s fun nonetheless.

Below is a pretty interesting article on Derrick Rose written by one of my favorite NBA writers, Adrian Wojnarowski from Yahoo! Sports. I know it’s long, but it’s a good read. I have a few follow-up thoughts below the piece.

Reach out to him, Chicago management had pleaded with Derrick Rose. LeBron doesn’t think you want him here. That’s what they told the Bulls’ franchise star in July, a request that was met with dutiful respect from Rose. Sure, he told the Bulls. I’ll shoot him a text. Rose is polite this way, honoring obligations and orders from above.

Nevertheless, it would change nothing. To LeBron James, the message was unmistakable, sources said: I can take you or leave you – and that could never sell the needy King. William Wesley never did get his wish of LBJ chasing Michael Jordan’s ghosts in Chicago. Dwyane Wade recruited James relentlessly to Miami, and ultimately had to hand the Heat over to the Royal Pain.

Rose didn’t want LeBron taking the ball out of his hands, nor respect out of the room. Eventually, Rose reached out, but only out of a sense of duty. Rose didn’t want James, nor did Rose particularly want Wade to make a Chicago homecoming. During early July, Rose shut himself in the gym and worked on his game. The soap opera bored him.

“If they wanted to come here, they would’ve come here,” Rose told Yahoo! Sports Saturday night.

Rose was betting on his own greatness, a MVP candidacy he believed would come sooner than later. He hasn’t hurtled himself into the race because his sneaker company passed out 22,000 placards pushing his All-Star candidacy on Saturday night, nor because they chant “MVP … MVP” over and over in the United Center. The measure of an MVP would come in the final minutes on a night when it was Wade and Rose, Rose and Wade, two superstars slugging it out with shot upon breathtaking shot.

Wade buried several 3-pointers in the final minutes to hit for 33 points, and Rose finished those twisting, turning layups at the rim. He hit jump shots. He made it to the foul line and never blinked on a perfect eight free throws. Rose finished with 34 points, seven assists and these Bulls on his back. It was a magnificent ending and Saturday night closed with Rose’s arms raised to the rafters, a 99-96 victory that was testament to his emerging greatness.

The noise tumbled down out of the United Center upon Rose, the way it hasn’t for a Bull since Michael Jordan in the late 1990s. Rose has come out of the city’s Southside, a Chicago kid who keeps elevating his game to meet the next challenge, the next step.

Yes, Rose had to win this game. He had to be the one to deliver it. James was sitting with a sore ankle, Chris Bosh left with his own injured ankle and it didn’t matter that Joakim Noah is still on the sideline with a broken thumb. In the wake of Miami’s three stars marching into Chicago – the three recruits who got away – the Bulls had gone to great lengths to stand up for Rose with a promotional night. And that probably raised the pressure on him.

“I’m speechless for them to have done that,” Rose said. And then he said, so relieved: “Thank God we won.”

He felt kind of awkward when he showed up for shootaround in the morning and those signs were everywhere. He’s no self-promoter, forever deflecting praise to his coaches, his teammates. He doesn’t speak of himself in the third person, doesn’t make up nicknames. He’s an old soul with a bold, different game at point guard.

Indeed, Rose loves the way the Bulls are building a contender: around defense, around him. When he came into the league, he was a shy kid still learning to speak comfortably in public, still growing into a superstar’s burden. People mistook the teen awkwardness as some kind of missing leadership gene, like a one-and-done point guard from the University of Memphis-Calipari ought to come fully developed to the pros.

Rose has always been his own man, though. Worldwide Wes had been an influence that pushed him to John Calipari, but Rose and his family never allowed him to be funneled into that LeBron-Wes recruiting machinery to CAA. This is a league of young players devoted to James, loyalists in ways that perplex people. Yet, Rose thinks for himself and has such a tremendous grasp of human nature. Privately, he wanted Atlanta free agent Joe Johnson(notes) as his shooting guard, a way to balance the floor with Noah and Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng. James and Wade would’ve taken the ball and diminished Rose as the Bulls point guard. It never appealed to him.

“He’s a leader because of the way he comes and work here, because of the example he sets,” Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said of Rose late Saturday in his office. “Some guys just talk to talk, but that’s not how you lead. When he has something to say, it counts and guys listen.”

Thibodeau thinks about the way Kevin Garnett led in Boston when he was a Celtics assistant, and believes Rose is on his way to such command of the franchise.

There are no words as important as deeds for a star, and Rose understood the burden on Saturday. “Everyone knew where the ball was going,” he said, and that meant Wade and Rose. Rose and Wade. Back and forth, again and again. Eventually, the noise would tumble down onto Rose like nothing a Bulls player had heard in so, so long here. “That’s why I’m in this league,” Rose said. “I love competing against the best.”

These two teams are going to meet in the springtime, perhaps for a long, nasty playoff series, and Rose promises to be a problem for the Heat. The way he gets to the rim, the way he slices, slithers and contorts his body on these breathless drives is something to behold. Of course, LeBron James will be on the floor too. Everything changes on those nights. James is a force of nature, and deep down Rose was never afraid of him going somewhere else. He was too proud to beg and too pragmatic to think that would’ve made a difference in James’ decision.

Rose wants to be the hometown kid to bring a championship back to Chicago, and he never lost an edge with James, with Wade. He asked nothing of James in the summer of 2010, lost no edge, lost no standing. His game has come, and Rose believes he can trade blows with the best in basketball now. He’s right. These Bulls are built around a superstar point guard. His team, his city, his burden.

“Chicago’s got a good one,” Wade said.

Chicago’s got a great one, and Derrick Rose is desperate to someday show Wade and James: It isn’t just that he didn’t want them. He didn’t need them.

I love that Rose has that quiet confidence. “Like Gary Cooper, the strong, silent type” as Tony Soprano would say. And I’m sure many Bulls fans love the idea that he believes so much in his own ability that he only half-heartedly reached out to LeBron and Wade last summer.

But I still wanted LeBron James on the Bulls. And even though he’s become incredibly unlikable over the last several months I’d still want him in Chicago if they had another chance. As Woj said in the article, he’s a force of nature. The most physically gifted athlete the NBA has ever seen. I’m not happy that he plays for another team.

So while this story fuels the romanticized vision of Rose being the hometown kid who leads his team back to NBA glory and tries to follow in the footsteps of the Greatest Player of All Time, it’s also a little frustrating to think that he could have made a difference in bringing LeBron to Chicago.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Derrick Rose. And for the first time since MJ the Bulls have a player that I actually feel lucky to be able to watch. He does some amazing things.

I just can’t help but wonder “what if?”

Russell Westbrook is becoming one of my favorite players

Just a couple links for your Friday reading enjoyment.

First of all is a nice blog by Dan Bernstein praising Stacey King as the perfect color analyst for a budding but humble superstar like Derrick Rose.

There’s also a solid article from SI’s Zach Lowe arguing that the absence of Joakim Noah is hurting the Bulls offense more than their defense. It references basketball metrics which I usually loathe, but it’s still a very well done piece.

The Bulls travel to Indiana tomorrow and play the dreaded (and maybe LeBron-less) Heat on Saturday at the UC.

If you do nothing else today, stop by the Stacey King Soundboard. My favorites are “What are you doing Dragic!” and “Stop it!” which are both from Derrick Rose’s epic dunk on Goran Dragic last year (that link has the Stacey King call, for a higher quality but King-less version of the video go here).

And next time you see Derrick Rose do something special, try shouting in the Stacey King voice. It’s fun. And freeing.

The Chicago Bulls currently carry an impressive mark of 23-11, which also happened to be their record through 34 games in the 1997-98 season…also known as the last Bulls team to hoist a trophy in June.

I’m not saying the Bulls are that good, and it’s been an interesting stretch without Noah in trying to figure out how solid they really are. Save for a clunker in New Jersey, they’ve been handling bad teams and grinding out wins however they can get them.

It’s obvious they’re a much better team with Noah at center, and their recent run of ugly victories comes with mixed feelings. It’s great that they’re winning and fattening up on the dregs of the league, but some of those games have been so ugly that it’s been difficult to really feel good about the final score.

That’s not to say that every win needs to be sexy. I’ve written before that we forget about the hard earned W’s from the mid-90′s Bulls where they looked old, tired, and weird for most of the game and then somehow found a way to escape with a win. Those times come and go. And in those times it’s nice to have a player who continues to show that he’s the best player on the floor more often than not.

Those “MVP” chants for Derrick Rose at the United Center are no longer silly or inappropriate. Steve Aschburner (ouch) at NBA.com writes that Rose is currently leading the MVP race and other national writers put him right in the top 2 or 3 of candidates.

Right now the biggest challenge (besides the absence of Noah) seems to be the way rookie head coach Tom Thibodeau will deal with his All Star power forward lacking skill and maybe effort on the defensive end. Thibs has already established that he can run better offensive sets than any coach the Bulls have had in years. But when you listen to him talk, it’s “defense defense defense. Defense.” Having a gifted offensive player who lacks the same passion for the other side of the ball might be Thibs’ first big test as an NBA head coach. How successfully he navigates this issue will play an important part in the rest of this season. Noah returning to the lineup will help, but until then the Bulls need Carlos Boozer to be at least passable on the defensive end of the floor.

They’re 23-11 right now, and currently hold the third best record in the East behind Boston and Miami. I think it’s completely fair to think they could fare no worse than a three seed come playoff time, which could mean a second round matchup with the Celtics, Heat, or Magic. But let’s get to the All Star break first.

*If you have a minute, vote for Derrick Rose to make the All Star Game. It’s a little ridiculous that a top MVP candidate may not start in the game because he gets fewer votes than Rajon Rondo. Seriously?

Please excuse the lack of game photo as this recap is being done entirely on my iPhone and I have no way (that I know of) to code the pic into the post. Are you ok?